Sept 29th..EIA Report. -10.104M Massive Net draw (including SPR)

 Big Net draw including SPR draw -7.455M

Crude -0.215M 

SPR -4.575M

Gas -2.422M 

Dist -2.892M 

Cush +0.692M

ITEMS BELOW TO BE UPDATED LATER IN BLUE

WHITE IS UPDATED

BLUE FROM LAST WEEK

Other info

Domestic production fell from prior week 12.0 vs 12.1 last week

Imports 6,449 -0.498

Exports 4,646 +3.540

US crude inventories fell by 4.790mb last week (commercial -0.215mb, SPR -4.575mb)

Updated September 29th

Crude Stock 97.8% of 5 yr average

Gas stock 93.6% of 5 yr average

Dis stock 80.6% of 5 yr average

Updated September 29th

Updated September 29th

SPR approaching 400!

Sep 29th daily update

  Oil above $80. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.44 for the quarter) 96.9% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.47 for the quarter) 40.7% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $22.50 for November contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Thu Sep 29th

BTE looking to bank another $3.10M+ AFF & $1.92M+ FCF today ($479K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $82.62 & current pricing = $1.130+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $82.62 & current pricing = $700+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $95.15* avg $99.15** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.47* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.44** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Sep 24th daily update

 Oil above $75. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $94.44 for the quarter) 90.6% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $87.49 for the quarter) 35.2% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $21.20 for November contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Sat Sep 24th

BTE looking to bank another $2.85M+ AFF & $1.49M+ FCF today ($373K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $79.43 & current pricing = $1.041+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $79.43 & current pricing = $700+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $95.41* avg $99.57** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $87.49* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $94.44** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Sep 2nd - WTI Settlement price information

 Oil above $85....every day above $70 is a great day!

Sep 1st WTI settled at $86.87 (Front month October 2022)

October 2022 front month contracts expire September 21st, 2022.

October 2022 front month contracts 36.7% complete

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $96.87 for the quarter) 65.2% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $91.56 for the quarter) 12.1% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $96.16* avg $100.64** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $91.56* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $96.87* (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $346M avg $105.39* avg $108.99** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

Sep 2nd daily update

 Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $97.10 for the quarter) 63.8% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $91.97 for the quarter) 11.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $19.70 for October contracts 

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Fri Sep 2nd

BTE looking to bank another $3.23M+ AFF & $1.87M+ FCF today ($468K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $88.22 & current pricing = $1.179+ billion/year which is above the management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $88.22 & current pricing = $700+ million/year which is above the management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $96.20* avg $100.72** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $92.11* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $97.10** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Sep 1st - WTI Settlement price information

 Oil above $85....every day above $70 is a great day!

Sep 1st WTI settled at $86.61 (Front month October 2022)

October 2022 front month contracts expire September 21st, 2022.

October 2022 front month contracts 33.3% complete

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $97.10 for the quarter) 63.8% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $91.97 for the quarter) 11.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $96.19* avg $100.72** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $91.97* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $97.10* (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $346M avg $105.39* avg $108.99** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)