Nov 9th daily update

Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.90 for the quarter) 84.6% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $88.06 for the quarter) 41.3% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $72.95 FOR THE REMAINING 37 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

3. The WCS discount $29.70 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Wed Nov 9th

With fully factored 2023 hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $86.92 & current pricing = $1.434+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored 2023 hedges Free Cash Flow @ $86.92 & current pricing = $910+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.26* avg $97.64** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.90* avg $88.06** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

BTE - Baytex Energy - Shareholder