Nov 30th .EIA Report. -7.666M Massive Net draw (including SPR)

 Big Net draw including SPR draw -7.666M

Crude -12.580M 

SPR -1.402M

Gas +2.769M 

Dist +3.547M 

Cush -0.415M

ITEMS BELOW TO BE UPDATED LATER IN BLUE

WHITE IS UPDATED

BLUE FROM LAST WEEK

Other info

Domestic production flat line from prior week 12.1 vs 12.1 last week

Imports 6.037 -1.027

Exports 4,948 +0.706

US crude inventories fell by 13.982mb last week (commercial -12.580mb, SPR -1.402mb)

Updated November 30th

Crude Stock 92.2% of 5 yr average

Gas stock 95.7% of 5 yr average

Dis stock 88.1% of 5 yr average

Updated November 30th

Updated November 30th

SPR below 390!

SPR draw 1.6m from last week. Down to 390

US SPR crude inventories fell by 1.6mb w/w to 390.5mb last week

Sour unchanged at 207.7mb

Sweet -1.6mb to 182.8mb

Keep draining!

Wait for EIA.

Nov 21st update

Oil above $80. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.54 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $87.21 for the quarter) 57.1% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $68.54 FOR THE REMAINING 27 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $27.50 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Mon Nov 21st

With fully factored 2023 hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $80.28 & current pricing = $1.301+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored 2023 hedges Free Cash Flow @ $80.28 & current pricing = $822+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $93.91* avg $97.49** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.54* avg $87.96** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Nov 11th daily update

  Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $87.06 for the quarter) 87.9% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $87.96 for the quarter) 46.0% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $71.70 FOR THE REMAINING 34 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $29.70 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Fri Nov 11th

With fully factored 2023 hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $89.25 & current pricing = $1.481+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored 2023 hedges Free Cash Flow @ $89.25 & current pricing = $940+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.23* avg $97.49** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $87.06* avg $87.96** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Nov 9th daily update

 Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.90 for the quarter) 84.6% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $88.06 for the quarter) 41.3% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $72.95 FOR THE REMAINING 37 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $29.70 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Wed Nov 9th

With fully factored 2023 hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $86.92 & current pricing = $1.434+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored 2023 hedges Free Cash Flow @ $86.92 & current pricing = $910+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.26* avg $97.64** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.90* avg $88.06** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

SPR draw 3.6m from last week. Below 400

US SPR crude inventories fell by 3.6mb w/w to 396.2mb last week

Sour unchanged at 207.8mb

Sweet -3.6mb at 188.4mb

Keep draining!

Wait for EIA.

Nov 8th daily update

Oil above $90. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.90 for the quarter) 84.6% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $88.06 for the quarter) 41.3% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $72.95 FOR THE REMAINING 37 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $29.70 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Tue Nov 8th

With fully factored 2023 hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $90.68 & current pricing = $1.524+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored 2023 hedges Free Cash Flow @ $90.68 & current pricing = $969+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.26* avg $97.64** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.90* avg $88.06** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Oct 28th daily update

 Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.42 for the quarter) 72.5% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $86.68 for the quarter) 31.7% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $75.70 FOR THE REMAINING 43 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $25.75 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Fri Oct 28th

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $87.48 & current pricing = $1.565+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $87.48 & current pricing = $950+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.40* avg $97.78** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.42* avg $86.68** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Oct 20th daily update

 Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.46 for the quarter) 96.6% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $87.86 for the quarter) 20.6% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $76.90 FOR THE REMAINING 50 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $28.70 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Thu Oct 20th

BTE looking to bank another $3.06M+ AFF & $2.12M+ FCF today ($529K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $86.50 & current pricing = $1.116+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $86.50 & current pricing = $772+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.50* avg $98.43** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.46* avg $88.45** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Oct 14th daily update

Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.58 for the quarter) 58.2% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $88.45 for the quarter) 15.9% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $24.40 for November contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Fri Oct 14th

BTE looking to bank another $3.05M+ AFF & $2.15M+ FCF today ($537K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $85.63 & current pricing = $1.112+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $85.63 & current pricing = $784+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.75* avg $98.43** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.58* avg $88.45** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Oct 6th .EIA Report. -15.721M Massive Net draw (including SPR)

Big Net draw including SPR draw -15.721M

Crude -1.356M 

SPR -6.194M

Gas -4.728M 

Dist -3.443M 

Cush +0.273M

ITEMS BELOW TO BE UPDATED LATER IN BLUE

WHITE IS UPDATED

BLUE FROM LAST WEEK

Other info

Domestic production flat line from prior week 12.0 vs 12.0 last week

Imports 5,947 -0.502

Exports 4,551 -0.095

US crude inventories fell by 7.550mb last week (commercial -1.356mb, SPR -6.194mb)

Updated October 6th

Crude Stock 97.2% of 5 yr average

Gas stock 91.4% of 5 yr average

Dis stock 79.2% of 5 yr average

Updated October 6th

Updated October 6th

SPR approaching 400!

Oct 6th daily update

Oil above $80. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.06 for the quarter) 49.5% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $85.97 for the quarter) 6.3% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $22.00 for November contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Thu Oct 6th

BTE looking to bank another $3.23M+ AFF & $2.28M+ FCF today ($571K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $89.00 & current pricing = $1.178+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $89.00 & current pricing = $833+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.88* avg $98.69** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.06* avg $85.97** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Sept 29th..EIA Report. -10.104M Massive Net draw (including SPR)

 Big Net draw including SPR draw -7.455M

Crude -0.215M 

SPR -4.575M

Gas -2.422M 

Dist -2.892M 

Cush +0.692M

ITEMS BELOW TO BE UPDATED LATER IN BLUE

WHITE IS UPDATED

BLUE FROM LAST WEEK

Other info

Domestic production fell from prior week 12.0 vs 12.1 last week

Imports 6,449 -0.498

Exports 4,646 +3.540

US crude inventories fell by 4.790mb last week (commercial -0.215mb, SPR -4.575mb)

Updated September 29th

Crude Stock 97.8% of 5 yr average

Gas stock 93.6% of 5 yr average

Dis stock 80.6% of 5 yr average

Updated September 29th

Updated September 29th

SPR approaching 400!

Sep 29th daily update

  Oil above $80. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.44 for the quarter) 96.9% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.47 for the quarter) 40.7% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $22.50 for November contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Thu Sep 29th

BTE looking to bank another $3.10M+ AFF & $1.92M+ FCF today ($479K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $82.62 & current pricing = $1.130+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $82.62 & current pricing = $700+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $95.15* avg $99.15** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.47* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.44** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Sep 24th daily update

 Oil above $75. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $94.44 for the quarter) 90.6% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $87.49 for the quarter) 35.2% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $21.20 for November contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Sat Sep 24th

BTE looking to bank another $2.85M+ AFF & $1.49M+ FCF today ($373K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $79.43 & current pricing = $1.041+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $79.43 & current pricing = $700+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $95.41* avg $99.57** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $87.49* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $94.44** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Sep 2nd - WTI Settlement price information

 Oil above $85....every day above $70 is a great day!

Sep 1st WTI settled at $86.87 (Front month October 2022)

October 2022 front month contracts expire September 21st, 2022.

October 2022 front month contracts 36.7% complete

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $96.87 for the quarter) 65.2% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $91.56 for the quarter) 12.1% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $96.16* avg $100.64** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $91.56* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $96.87* (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $346M avg $105.39* avg $108.99** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

Sep 2nd daily update

 Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $97.10 for the quarter) 63.8% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $91.97 for the quarter) 11.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $19.70 for October contracts 

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Fri Sep 2nd

BTE looking to bank another $3.23M+ AFF & $1.87M+ FCF today ($468K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $88.22 & current pricing = $1.179+ billion/year which is above the management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $88.22 & current pricing = $700+ million/year which is above the management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $96.20* avg $100.72** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $92.11* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $97.10** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Sep 1st - WTI Settlement price information

 Oil above $85....every day above $70 is a great day!

Sep 1st WTI settled at $86.61 (Front month October 2022)

October 2022 front month contracts expire September 21st, 2022.

October 2022 front month contracts 33.3% complete

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $97.10 for the quarter) 63.8% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $91.97 for the quarter) 11.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $96.19* avg $100.72** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $91.97* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $97.10* (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $346M avg $105.39* avg $108.99** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

Aug 31st - WTI Settlement price information

Oil above $85....every day above $70 is a great day!

Aug 31st WTI settled at $89.55 (Front month October 2022)

October 2022 front month contracts expire September 21st, 2022.

October 2022 front month contracts 30.0% complete

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $97.34 for the quarter) 62.3% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $92.80 for the quarter) 9.9% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $96.24* avg $100.81** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $92.80* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $97.34* (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $346M avg $105.39* avg $108.99** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

Aug 31st...EIA Report. -7.455M Big Net draw (including SPR)

Big Net draw including SPR draw -7.455M

Crude -3.326M 

SPR -3.200M

Gas -1.172M 

Dist +0.111M 

Cush -0.523M

ITEMS BELOW TO BE UPDATED LATER IN BLUE

WHITE IS UPDATED

BLUE FROM LAST WEEK

Other info

Domestic production fell from prior week 12.1 vs 12.0 last week

Imports 5,956 -0.215

Exports 3,967 -0.210

US crude inventories fell by 6.393mb last week (commercial -3.326mb, SPR -3.067mb)

Updated August 17th

Crude Stock 93.8% of 5 yr average

Gas stock 92.2% of 5 yr average

Dis stock 76.8% of 5 yr average

Updated August 31st

Updated August 31st

SPR under 450!

Aug 30th - WTI Settlement price information

 Oil above $90....every day above $70 is a great day!

Aug 29th WTI settled at $91.64 (Front month October 2022)

October 2022 front month contracts expire September 21st, 2022.

October 2022 front month contracts 26.7% complete

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $97.41 for the quarter) 60.9% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $93.10 for the quarter) 8.8% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $96.26* avg $100.84** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $93.10* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $97.41* (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $346M avg $105.39* avg $108.99** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

Aug 29th - WTI Settlement price information

 Oil above $90....every day above $70 is a great day!

Aug 29th WTI settled at $97.01 (Front month October 2022)

October 2022 front month contracts expire September 21st, 2022.

October 2022 front month contracts 23.3% complete

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $97.55 for the quarter) 59.4% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $94.28 for the quarter) 7.7% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $xxx.xx for the quarter) 0% Complete

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $96.30* avg $100.90** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $94.28* avg $xxx.xx** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $97.55* (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $346M avg $105.39* avg $108.99** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)