Oct 28th daily update

 Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.42 for the quarter) 72.5% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $86.68 for the quarter) 31.7% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $75.70 FOR THE REMAINING 43 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $25.75 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Fri Oct 28th

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $87.48 & current pricing = $1.565+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $87.48 & current pricing = $950+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.40* avg $97.78** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.42* avg $86.68** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Oct 20th daily update

 Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.46 for the quarter) 96.6% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $87.86 for the quarter) 20.6% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $76.90 FOR THE REMAINING 50 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $28.70 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Thu Oct 20th

BTE looking to bank another $3.06M+ AFF & $2.12M+ FCF today ($529K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $86.50 & current pricing = $1.116+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $86.50 & current pricing = $772+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.50* avg $98.43** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.46* avg $88.45** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Oct 14th daily update

Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.58 for the quarter) 58.2% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $88.45 for the quarter) 15.9% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $24.40 for November contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Fri Oct 14th

BTE looking to bank another $3.05M+ AFF & $2.15M+ FCF today ($537K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $85.63 & current pricing = $1.112+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $85.63 & current pricing = $784+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.75* avg $98.43** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.58* avg $88.45** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Oct 6th .EIA Report. -15.721M Massive Net draw (including SPR)

Big Net draw including SPR draw -15.721M

Crude -1.356M 

SPR -6.194M

Gas -4.728M 

Dist -3.443M 

Cush +0.273M

ITEMS BELOW TO BE UPDATED LATER IN BLUE

WHITE IS UPDATED

BLUE FROM LAST WEEK

Other info

Domestic production flat line from prior week 12.0 vs 12.0 last week

Imports 5,947 -0.502

Exports 4,551 -0.095

US crude inventories fell by 7.550mb last week (commercial -1.356mb, SPR -6.194mb)

Updated October 6th

Crude Stock 97.2% of 5 yr average

Gas stock 91.4% of 5 yr average

Dis stock 79.2% of 5 yr average

Updated October 6th

Updated October 6th

SPR approaching 400!

Oct 6th daily update

Oil above $80. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.06 for the quarter) 49.5% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $85.97 for the quarter) 6.3% Complete

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $22.00 for November contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Thu Oct 6th

BTE looking to bank another $3.23M+ AFF & $2.28M+ FCF today ($571K for buybacks today)

With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $89.00 & current pricing = $1.178+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $89.00 & current pricing = $833+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.88* avg $98.69** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.06* avg $85.97** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2