Nov 30th .EIA Report. -7.666M Massive Net draw (including SPR)

 Big Net draw including SPR draw -7.666M

Crude -12.580M 

SPR -1.402M

Gas +2.769M 

Dist +3.547M 

Cush -0.415M

ITEMS BELOW TO BE UPDATED LATER IN BLUE

WHITE IS UPDATED

BLUE FROM LAST WEEK

Other info

Domestic production flat line from prior week 12.1 vs 12.1 last week

Imports 6.037 -1.027

Exports 4,948 +0.706

US crude inventories fell by 13.982mb last week (commercial -12.580mb, SPR -1.402mb)

Updated November 30th

Crude Stock 92.2% of 5 yr average

Gas stock 95.7% of 5 yr average

Dis stock 88.1% of 5 yr average

Updated November 30th

Updated November 30th

SPR below 390!

SPR draw 1.6m from last week. Down to 390

US SPR crude inventories fell by 1.6mb w/w to 390.5mb last week

Sour unchanged at 207.7mb

Sweet -1.6mb to 182.8mb

Keep draining!

Wait for EIA.

Nov 21st update

Oil above $80. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.54 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $87.21 for the quarter) 57.1% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $68.54 FOR THE REMAINING 27 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $27.50 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Mon Nov 21st

With fully factored 2023 hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $80.28 & current pricing = $1.301+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored 2023 hedges Free Cash Flow @ $80.28 & current pricing = $822+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $93.91* avg $97.49** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.54* avg $87.96** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Nov 11th daily update

  Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $87.06 for the quarter) 87.9% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $87.96 for the quarter) 46.0% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $71.70 FOR THE REMAINING 34 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $29.70 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Fri Nov 11th

With fully factored 2023 hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $89.25 & current pricing = $1.481+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored 2023 hedges Free Cash Flow @ $89.25 & current pricing = $940+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.23* avg $97.49** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $87.06* avg $87.96** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

Nov 9th daily update

 Oil above $85. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.90 for the quarter) 84.6% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $88.06 for the quarter) 41.3% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $72.95 FOR THE REMAINING 37 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $29.70 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Wed Nov 9th

With fully factored 2023 hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $86.92 & current pricing = $1.434+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored 2023 hedges Free Cash Flow @ $86.92 & current pricing = $910+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.26* avg $97.64** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.90* avg $88.06** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2

SPR draw 3.6m from last week. Below 400

US SPR crude inventories fell by 3.6mb w/w to 396.2mb last week

Sour unchanged at 207.8mb

Sweet -3.6mb at 188.4mb

Keep draining!

Wait for EIA.

Nov 8th daily update

Oil above $90. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!

3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete

4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing

(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.90 for the quarter) 84.6% Complete

(Avg Spot Rate $88.06 for the quarter) 41.3% Complete

TO HIT THE YEAR PLAN $94 WE ONLY NEED AN AVERAGE OF $72.95 FOR THE REMAINING 37 SETTLEMENT DAYS OF 2022!!!

1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html

2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay

https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html

3. The WCS discount $29.70 for December contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25 no one complaining about hedges here)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html

4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices

DAILY INFORMATION

Tue Nov 8th

With fully factored 2023 hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $90.68 & current pricing = $1.524+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.

With fully factored 2023 hedges Free Cash Flow @ $90.68 & current pricing = $969+ million/year which is above the original management plan.

Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;

2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)

YTD 2022 avg $94.26* avg $97.64** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)

Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.90* avg $88.06** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)

Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)

Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)

Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)

My Shareholder Strategic Focus

i. Focus on FCF!

ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)

iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)

iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend

v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.

vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)

vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.

With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!

Reference:

https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2