Oil above $80. Every day/weekend above $70 Oil is a great!
3rd Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing
(Avg Front Month Settlement $103.88 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete
(Avg Spot Rate $93.06 for the quarter) 100.0% Complete
4th Quarter 2022 WTI Pricing
(Avg Front Month Settlement $86.06 for the quarter) 49.5% Complete
(Avg Spot Rate $85.97 for the quarter) 6.3% Complete
1. Check out the Baytex progress on Clearwater
https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/01/clearwater-tracking.html
2. Check out the Baytex progress on Duvernay
https://wolfofbaystreetto.blogspot.com/2022/02/duvernay-tracking-blog.html
3. The WCS discount $22.00 for November contracts (remember Baytex is hedged at only $12.25)
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/western-canadian-select-wcs-crude-oil-futures.html
4. BTE Debt, Buyback, Dividend plan ahead of schedule at these prices
DAILY INFORMATION
Thu Oct 6th
BTE looking to bank another $3.23M+ AFF & $2.28M+ FCF today ($571K for buybacks today)
With fully factored hedges Adjusted Funds Flow @ $89.00 & current pricing = $1.178+ billion/year which is above the original management plan.
With fully factored hedges Free Cash Flow @ $89.00 & current pricing = $833+ million/year which is above the original management plan.
Not including improved hedges or Clearwater additional drilling upside see historical trend below (futures settlement) ;
2022 (* WTI Front month contract ** WTI Spot rate, No colour = final/BTE actual)
YTD 2022 avg $94.88* avg $98.69** (PRIOR YEAR $67.92)
Q4 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q4 = $TBD avg $86.06* avg $85.97** (PRIOR YEAR $77.19)
Q3 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q3 = $TBD avg $103.88* avg $93.06** (PRIOR YEAR $70.56)
Q2 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q2 = $TBD avg $105.39* avg $108.93** (PRIOR YEAR $66.07)
Q1 2022 BTE Cash Flow AFF Q1 = $280M avg $94.29 (PRIOR YEAR $57.84)
My Shareholder Strategic Focus
i. Focus on FCF!
ii. Pay down debt (75% of FCF. Down to $800M in Q1-2023)
iii. NCIB Buyback shares (25% of FCF for now up to 50% once $800M debt reached)
iv. Debt down to $400M Issue a dividend
v. If Clearwater development can accelerate FCF, debt payment, share buybacks and dividends do it.
vi. Preferably in that order and keep within 85-90k bpd (including Clearwater)
vii. Ignore the share price focus on the enterprise strategy, operations, and efficiency.
With this you will find 100% support from this shareholder!
Reference:
https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/corporate-handouts/2
